The Toll: Tragedy freezes politics — and starts new debates

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

We're back to discussions of war and peace. And the toll of war comes into sharper focus.

The awful news out of Fort Hood, Texas, is a story that will consume all the political oxygen for a while.

It will replace it with — depending on the circumstances that develop — fresh discussions about the physical and mental costs of war, of race and religion in the armed services, and of the nature of the sacrifices the nation asks of its troops.

It comes as President Obama ponders some of the biggest foreign-policy challenges of his time in office. Troop levels have been and will continue to be a major part of that discussion.

And now the nation wants to know as much as it can learn about what that means for those on the receiving end of presidential orders.

Coming Friday, per ABC's Jake Tapper: “White House officials tell ABC News that President Obama will visit with wounded soldiers tomorrow at Walter Reed Army Medical Center. The trip was scheduled before the incident today at Fort Hood, officials said.”

Politico's Carol E. Lee: “It is Obama's first visit to Walter Reed as president. It comes as the president is weighing a decision on a new strategy in Afghanistan that could involve committing tens of thousands of more troops to the conflict.”

As for the suspected shooter: “He was mortified by the idea of having to deploy,” Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan's cousin, Nader Hasan tells The New York Times. “He had people telling him on a daily basis the horrors they saw over there.”

“Apparently he became very disgruntled with the mission in Iraq and Afghanistan, voiced that to one of his colleagues,” Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, told Brian Ross on ABC's “Good Morning America” Friday.

Said President Obama, late Thursday afternoon: “It's difficult enough when we lose these brave Americans in battles overseas. It is horrifying that they should come under fire at an army base on American soil.”

Army Chief of Staff Gen. George Casey and Army Secretary John McHugh will be at Fort Hood Friday.

As we learn more about what happened on the base: “Fort Hood, the Texas military base that was the scene of a mass shooting Thursday, has been hard hit by the growing strain on the Army from multiple combat deployments — with its personnel suffering the highest number of suicides among Army installations since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003,” Ann Scott Tyson reports in The Washington Post. “After many years of lengthy war zone rotations in Iraq and Afghanistan, Army personnel are experiencing record rates of suicide, post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and other mental health problems, as well as worsening alcohol and drug abuse.”

Health care takes a back seat, for the day: The president's visit with the Democratic caucus has been pushed back from Friday to Saturday, the day of the House vote.

When it's health care time again, remember that the Democrats picked up two key allies: the AARP, and the American Medical Association. (Endorsements may not matter too much, but if either or both of these groups lined up on the others side, what would we be saying about the bill's prospects?)

Another endorsement coming, this one directly from the White House: “The White House will today issue a Statement of Administration Policy today endorsing the health care reform legislation from House Democrats,” ABC's Jake Tapper reports. “It will not be a signal that the president favors the House bill over the one from Senate Democrats, officials say.”

In getting the votes, the buttons they've got to push will be on the other side of lukewarm: “House Democratic leaders were struggling Thursday to contain uprisings on the hot-button issues of abortion and immigration that have left them little margin for error as they attempt to push through a massive health-care reform bill this weekend,” Shailagh Murray and Lori Montgomery write in The Washington Post.

The deciders? “The fate of the bill itself rests on the shoulders of a new generation of Democrats whose young careers will be defined, in part, by the votes they cast Saturday — votes sure to be used against many of them in 2010,” Politico's Patrick O'Connor reports.

“When asked if she had the 218-vote House majority needed to pass the bill, [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi responded, ‘We will,' ” per the San Francisco Chronicle.

“Democratic vote counters, working as thousands of conservative protesters chanted ‘kill the bill' outside the Capitol and later swarmed through Congressional office buildings, said they did not yet have the necessary 218 confirmed supporters,” Carl Hulse and David M. Herszenhorn write in The New York Times. “Democratic leaders said they expected to face a series of unusually difficult procedural votes before the vote on the bill itself. Party leaders said they were trying to shape a preliminary vote to allay concerns of anti-abortion Democrats demanding that public money not be used to pay for abortions or go to insurance plans that cover abortions.”

What the endorsements mean: “The endorsement by the AARP was prized because the seniors lobby is an electoral powerhouse and it has been skeptical of the Democrats' proposals to reduce spending on Medicare. The AMA's support was a marked turnaround for a group that played a leading role in stymieing past efforts to change the health care system,” Janet Hook and Noam N. Levey report, in the Chicago Tribune.

What they don't mean: “The endorsements did nothing to ease the concerns of House Republicans or conservative protesters who descended on the Capitol grounds Thursday to denounce the nearly 2,000-page bill,” Jennifer Haberkorn writes for the Washington Times. “Thousands carried posters reading ‘Don't Tread on Me' amid accusations by some in the crowd that Democrats are promoting a health care system that would resemble that of Nazi Germany.”

“Dozens of buses, organized by the conservative group Americans for Prosperity carried grassroots activists and concerned citizens from Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland and North Carolina. Organizers said activists became energized after Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey Tuesday,” ABC's Devin Dwyer reports.

In the Senate, the power of 60 as the power of one: “As Democratic leaders enter the intensive phase of their drive to pass health legislation, they must satisfy 60 Mary Landrieus in the Senate — every Democrat and the two Democratic-friendly independents, each with individual priorities — as they try to hold together a fragile coalition with no room for error,” The Wall Street Journal's Naftali Bendavid writes. “And that has only become more complicated as Democrats from conservative states puzzle over what to make of Republican victories Tuesday in governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey.”

Adjusting to that power: “In the wake of Tuesday's vote Democrats have made hay of a GOP civil war, but all is not well on their side either. Move-On and Democracy of America are putting up $3.5 million to fund primary challenges against any Democratic Senator who blocks an up or down vote on the public option,” ABC's George Stephanopoulos reports. “Liberal democrats have been at war with centrist democrats throughout the health care debate.”

Consequences: “Republican victories in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races may make some congressional Democrats more leery of backing key elements of President Barack Obama's agenda because of the political price they could pay,” Bloomberg's Jonathan Salant writes.

Kim Strassel, in her Wall Street Journal column: “A lot of Democrats are getting a sneaky suspicion Mrs. Pelosi is willing to sacrifice their seats on the altar of liberal government health care. Combined with the election results and Mr. Obama's falling poll numbers, this is no recipe for loyalty. Hello, tipping point. Hello, even crazier Washington.”

Peggy Noonan: “What happened Tuesday isn't a death knell, but it is a fire alarm: Something's wrong, fix it, change course. Show humility. Bow to the public.”

And if the alarm isn't heard? “If the president — opposed by a majority of Americans, with almost no support from the other party — imposes an ideologically divisive health reform, it will smack of radicalism, reinforce polarization, and may cede the ideological center to Republicans for years to come,” Michael Gerson writes in his Washington Post column.

Picking up Tuesday's pieces: “Faced with the choice of running as an unapologetic Democrat in a state trending toward his party or keeping his distance from Washington in the fashion of a generation of Southern Democrats, Creigh Deeds tried to do both,” Politico's Jonathan Martin reports. “The result: the worst drubbing a Virginia gubernatorial candidate has received since 1961. As Democrats try to glean lessons from Tuesday's election losses, Deeds's case offers a vivid example of the difficulties that their candidates from Republican-leaning or swing states will face heading into the midterm elections.”

Iowa time — already: “Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty will make his first Iowa trip as a potential presidential candidate tomorrow to deliver a speech, fueling speculation he is preparing to run,” per Bloomberg's John McCormick. “Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee is in the state that holds the nation's first presidential caucus a day later, while former New York Governor George Pataki is scheduled to stop there on Nov. 10. Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee, also is considering an Iowa visit.”

So we've got our split Democrats — what about the Republicans?

The big tent — shrinking. RNC Chairman Michael Steele, on Republicans who run in 2010 supporting the president on health care or stimulus spending: “Candidates who live in moderate to slightly liberal districts have got to walk a little bit carefully here, because you do not want to put yourself in a position where you're crossing that line on conservative principles, fiscal principles, because we'll come after you,” Steele said on ABCNews.com's “Top Line” Thursday.

He couldn't have been talking about … “Florida Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) embrace of President Obama's economic stimulus package is continuing to dog the moderate Republican's bid for the U.S. Senate,” per ABC's Teddy Davis. “[Wednesday], Crist told CNN that he never endorsed the stimulus and that he was simply trying to get the best deal for Florida given that the stimulus was headed for passage in Washington. Now the anti-tax Club for Growth is launching a television ad in Florida aiming to ‘set the record straight.' ”

A tough course correction: “Facing a primary challenge from the conservative wing of the Republican Party, Crist appears to be trying to rewrite history,” Aaron Sharockman reports in the St. Petersburg Times. “But there are mountains of evidence that he not only supported the stimulus, but sang its praises.”

“Ever since the Republican's support of the Democratic plan outraged conservatives, Crist has tried to steer a middle course over his stance on the federal spending bill — but now his explanations are becoming extremely nuanced as his Republican U.S. Senate opponent, Marco Rubio, has hammered him as being a President Obama lackey,” The Miami Herald's Marc Caputo writes.

On the air, in New York State: “The opening line of a new television ad by New York Gov. David Paterson (D) is ‘some say I shouldn't be running for governor,' ” per ABC's Teddy Davis. “Left unsaid is that the someone is President Obama.”

Coming up on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos” Sunday: RNC Chairman Michael Steele and DNC Chairman Tim Kaine join Stephanopoulos in studio at the Newseum. The roundtable: George Will, Sam Donaldson, Cokie Roberts, Donna Brazile, and Frank Luntz.

The Kicker:

“I see this package as a pragmatic, commonsense opportunity to move forward.” — Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., on the stimulus package, in February.

“I didn't endorse it.” — Crist, on the stimulus package, in November.

For up-to-the-minute political updates check out The Note's blog . . . all day every day:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/

Dem Defections Pile Up on Health Care

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports: Could the health care bill be in real trouble in the House?

The Democratic defections are starting to pile up in advance of a vote scheduled for tomorrow on sweeping health reform efforts. (That schedule could slip to Sunday or beyond, if the votes aren’t there.)

According to the National Republican Congressional Committee — which, of course, has an interest in watching this vote particularly closely — 15 House Democrats and counting are saying publicly that they’ll oppose the measure when it reaches a vote.

Democrats can afford only 40 such defections to squeak the bill through. They’d prefer to win with room to spare.

The Democrats who’ve said — either in interviews or press releases — that they’re opposing the bill include: Rep. Travis Childers (Miss.); Rep. John Adler (N.J.); Rep. Walt Minnick (Idaho); Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (S.Dak.); Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.); Rep. Frank Kratovil (Md.); Rep. Larry Kissell (N.C.); Rep. Bart Gordon (Tenn.); Rep. Dan Boren (Okla.); Rep. Jim Matheson (Utah); Rep. Michael McMahon (N.Y.); Rep. John Tanner (Tenn.); Rep. Brian Baird (Wash.); Rep. Harry Teague (N.M.); and Rep. Collin Peterson (Minn.).

House Democratic aides say the list contains no surprises so far.

Some of the Democrats’ statements leave a bit of wiggle room. Plus — as ABC’s George Stephanopoulos is reporting — Democratic leaders are working behind the scenes to answer concerns among conservative Democrats about how the bill would handle funding for abortions.

But — keeping in mind that many members of Congress prefer to announce their intentions with their votes, not press releases — the defections suggest that reaching 218 remains a serious challenge for Democrats on the eve of the vote.

“If this bill is the political winner Nancy Pelosi claims it is, then why are Democrats fighting over who gets to vote against it?” NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said in a statement.

Protesters Arrested at Lieberman’s Office

ABC’s Z. Byron Wolf reports:

It is protest day, for the Left and the Right, on Capitol Hill.

First out of the gate -9 Protesters backing a universal health care system briefly occupied Sen. Joe Lieberman's office this morning.

Protesters werearrested, one by one, and dragged out of his office amid chants of “Everyone in and noone out, universal healthcare now!” and “Represent Connecticut, not AETNA!”

The whole affair, from occupation to final arrest, lasted 40 minutes.

Lieberman, the Connecticut Independent, has said he will join Republicans to filibuster a Democractic health bill if it contains a public health insurance option to operate alongside the private insurance market.

Later we will see much a larger protest from the other side of the political spectrum as potentially thousands of protesters gather with Republican lawmakers on the West side of the Capitol. Those protesters will lobby against Democrats' health care bills in large part because they include a public option..

Dueling Protests Converge at Pelosi’s Office – ‘Health Care for All!’ or ‘Kill the Bill!’

ABC News' Z. Byron Wolf reports: Capping off protest day here at the Capitol are the competing protests that have converged on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's district office on Capitol Hill, leading to several more arrests and littering the hallway with torn copies of House Democrats healthcare bill.

An protest of about 100 people supporting universal care – including some familiar faces from Lieberman's office earlier today – was already ongoing at Pelosi's office when a new group of about 100 people who oppose the bill showed up.

Specifically, the new group of protesters is concerned that the health reform bill will put tax dollars toward abortions.

Among the protesters against a health reform bill was Randall Terry, founder of the anti-abortion rights group Operation Rescue.

Terry said one of the protesters who was arrested is Father Norman Weslin, a priest from Indiana. Weslin laid down in front of Pelosi's door until a group of police officers picked him up and carried him away.

Up to four protesters (it wasn't clear from which group) were arrested when they started ripping up pages from the bill in the hallway.

Chants of “Healthcare for all!” have been drowned out by chants of “Kill the bill!”

Police are trying to clear the hallway.

This is the office for Pelosi in her capacity as Congresswoman for the 8th District of California. It is not where she works – that office is in the Capitol building.

Steele to Republicans Who Support Obama: ‘We’ll Come After You’

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports: RNC Chairman Michael Steelehas beenendorsing a “big tent” approach to recruiting candidates for 2010, emphasizing the need to find candidates who fit the needs of individual districts.

But on ABCNews.com’s “Top Line” today, Steele made clear there are limits to how far candidates can push the party’s limits.

Asked if he’d be comfortable with Republican candidates in 2010 who supported President Obama’s stimulus package, or his push to overhaul health care, Steele said:

“Well I’m gonna tell you honestly, that’s where the line gets a little bit tricky. And you saw in the House and in the Senate that there are ramifications, because that goes against a core principle. And trust me, you’re assuming that people want to have bloated debt, government expenditures and growth into their lives — they don’t. That’s a talking point out of the DNC.”

“People aren’t buying that. So candidates who live in moderate to slightly liberal districts have got to walk a little bit carefully here, because you do not want to put yourself in a position where you’re crossing that line on conservative principles, fiscal principles, because we’ll come after you,” Steele continued.

“You’re gonna find yourself in a very tough hole if you’re arguing for the president’s stimulus plan or Nancy Pelosi’s health plan. There’s no justification for growing the size of government the way this administration and this Congress wants to do it.”

Steele didn’t mention any candidates by name. But the comments could be interpreted as a warning shot aimed at Republicans who have voiced support for the stimulus — like Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., who’s running for governor next year in a competitive primary — or who, like Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, are supporting health care reform efforts.

Crist told CNN earlier this week that he never endorsed the stimulus package, and that he voiced support for it only because he was simply trying to get the best deal for Florida, given that the stimulus was headed for passage in Washington. However, given Crist’s sharing a stage with President Obama to trumpet the stimulus package and his publicly stated support for it, it will no doubt continue to dog him in his competitive primary against Marco Rubio no matter how strenuously he attempts to walk it back.

Steele also disputed the contention by White House senior adviser David Axelrod that 2009 wasn’t a referendum on the president’s policies, but that 2010 will be.

“You have the president going into New Jersey four times, and you’re going to then sit back after we kick your butt and say, ‘Well, no, this had nothing to do with the president?’ Well why was he there?” Steele said.

“And you can’t sit back at the same time and say … the only reason we’re losing is because our base isn’t excited so pass this horrendous health care bill. And that will excite them? They’re not excited because they’re fearful that you’re going to pass this horrendous health care bill because this is not the change that they voted for. They’ve missed that point.”

“So don’t get in front of the White House lawn and give me this sort of disingenuous, ‘Oh well, you know, ’09 isn’t about the president, 2010 is going to be about passing our agenda and that way people will be excited again.’ They’re not excited because they’re fearful of what it is you want to pass.”

Watch our full interview withthe RNC chairmanHERE.

UPDATE: The Democratic National Committee jumped on the interview after it aired, saying that Steele is tying himself to “extremist” elements inside the Republican Party:

“With today's threat to 'come after' moderate Republicans or those that would work for bipartisan solutions, it's clear the Michael Steele and the Republican party are ready to hand over the keys of the GOP to Michele Bachmann, Glenn Beck and the rest of the extremist tea party crowd,” DNC spokesman Hari Sevugan said in a statement.

“And in establishing a policy of purging moderates, the Republicans have committed themselves to being an extreme ideological party that will only turn-off independent voters and further marginalize an already isolated party going into 2010 and beyond.”

Fauci: Don’t Blame the Drug Companies!

ABC News' Lisa Chinn reports: Why isn’t there enough H1N1 vaccine to prevent more Americans from getting the flu?

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), it’s because of there was a perfect storm of events that created the shortage, or in his parlance, a “triple whammy.”Fauci told Congress, “You start late through no fault of anybody. That’s when the virus appeared. You have a flu waiting for you when the kids go back to school and you have a slow grower. That’s the issue. That’s the issue.”

It turns out that the H1N1 grows quickly in human beings, but not so quickly in the eggs used to grow the vaccine.

Dr. Thomas Frieden, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)says maybe we should haven’t been so quick to put out big numbers this past summer, saying, “With 20/20 hindsight, it’s clear that we should have been more skeptical about the projections being made, and we anticipated having five different manufacturers would provide more insurance than it has.”

While members of the House Appropriations Subcommittee for Labor, HHS, and Education appeared more than willing to blame manufacturers, the government’s representatives were having none of that. Rep. Betty McCollum, D-MN, said, “ There is a shortage because the manufacturers, the private sector, didn’t deliver as much as they thought they could.”

But Dr. Anthony Fauci countered that with this explanation:

“I don’t want anyone to get the impression that it’s the drug companies fault that this has happened because the drug companies contracted with the government to get a certain amount of doses for the flu season, with that comes benchmarks of when you think they’ll be delivered.

The fact that they’re not has to do with what we’ve said over and over again during this discussion, Mr. Chairman, that the virus doesn’t grow very well. It’s a misrepresentation to say it’s their fault that it didn’t grow very well. It’s the nature of the biology of the virus that created an expectation that we thought there would be a certain amount. That expectation was shared with the American public, and it’s a disappointment, it’s frustrating. I would hate to see it say ‘we did everything right, it’s the drug companies fault, because it really isn’t.”

As for how much vaccine is available now, that’s 32.3 million doses, according to Dr. Thomas Frieden, Director of the CDC. How far away is that from our goal? Do we even have a goal, asks Rep. Todd Tiahrt, R-KS.The answer to that is a little fuzzy.

Dr. Anthony Faucisays that if everyone in the target group got the vaccine, that would equal 159 million doses. But everyone doesn’t want it, so that’s not a good number. On a good year, we get about 1/3 of the population under 65 to get a seasonal flu vaccine, says Frieden. So what’s the answer? Well…no one really answered that.

The government committed to buying enough ‘bulk vaccine’ for 250 million doses, but as Dr. Lurie notes, “…not all of it needs to get filled and finished. … that was when we thought we were going to need two doses for everybody.”

So should we worry that we have enough or not?

Dr. Lurie says, “We are buying it as fast as the manufacturers can produce it.”

Dr. Frieden says, “We’re focusing on one week at a time.”

Stay tuned.

Strange Brew: GOP war clouds comeback picture

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

We knew the road to 2010 ran through 2009 — but we didn’t know it had this particular (right) turn.

The war in New York’s 23rd congressional district claimed a casualty even before Tuesday’s election. That guarantees that the Republican Party’s power vacuum/identity crisis comes into full view this week — even though the party has a plausible shot at going 3-for-3 in the big contests.

It’s an intriguing secondary storyline that’s fast becoming the primary one — in honor of the many primaries to come it portends for the GOP next year.

Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman stands a strong shot at winning the seat for Republicans — though Republican Dede Scozzafava’s endorsement of Democrat Bill Owens (as encouraged by the White House) scrambles the coalitions and loyalties enough to keep this one interesting.

Already, the race marks a major victory for anxious conservatives who have little love for the party’s nominal powerbrokers. Tea-party fervor already kicked Sen. Arlen Specter, D-Pa., out of the Republican Party, and next those same voices turn to Gov. Charlie Crist, R-Fla., in his Senate race.

There will be more primaries — and they won’t all produce candidates who are as likely to prevail as Doug Hoffman in upstate New York.

In this case, the establishment didn’t so much harness the grass-roots energy as it did get trampled by it; now the challenge is just holding on for the ride.

“The developments that put Republicans back in a stronger position to win a special House election on Tuesday will reverberate unpredictably far beyond the district’s boundaries,” Dan Balz writes in the Sunday Washington Post. “This was a classic case of the grass roots overrunning the leadership of the party, and it carries implications for the battles that will play out next year and beyond.”

“The message from national and New York conservatives is unambiguous,” Politico’s Jonathan Martin and Alex Isenstadt report. “This was an angry, energized base telling the national party that an anything-for-a-majority approach by GOP leaders is unacceptable. They are serious and deeply concerned about what’s going on in Washington.”

Vindication? “Not only was the conventional wisdom wrong, the idea that there’s a ‘civil war’ within the GOP revolving around this argument is nonsense,” Jonah Goldberg writes for National Review. “The GOP is an unapologetically conservative party, providing a choice not an echo, and — horror of horrors — it’s working.”

Should liberals root for a Democratic loss? “A Hoffman win could have implications for the Republican Senate primary in Florida, perhaps the 2012 nomination contest, and other races where Republicans have the choice between more ideologically correct (Marco Rubio, Sarah Palin) and more electable alternatives (Charlie Crist, Mitt Romney),” Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight.com.

You really can’t do both: “Tuesday’s vote in New York’s 23rd congressional district, to fill the seat vacated by Army Secretary John McHugh, a Republican, has become a front line in the GOP’s growing internal debate over whether the best way to rebuild the party’s fortunes is to seek to energize voters by focusing on core principles or to reach out to independents by broadening the platform,” The Wall Street Journal’s Jonathan Weisman and Naftali Bendavid write.

Tough storyline when you want to just win the thing: “The gulf between the moderate and conservative factions of the Republican Party appeared to spread Sunday when the Republican former candidate in a contentious congressional race endorsed the Democrat,” James Oliphant writes for the Los Angeles Times.

This was brewing for a long while — but service for how many? “The conservative ‘tea party’ activists went to war with the establishment and won, but can they close the deal with a Hoffman victory? Or will the infighting hand the Democrats a House seat in a previously solid Republican district?” Kara Rowland reports in the Washington Times.

“This energy on the right seems to exist outside the control of the conventional political structure, and GOP politicians and operatives are as likely to be victims of this anger as beneficiaries,” Politico’s Jim VandeHei and Alex Isenstadt write.

Anyone else on the ballot in upstate New York? This race didn’t get really, really interesting until someone went rogue:

“Hoffman could well win, giving short-term succor to the GOP and [Sarah] Palin’s exclusionary, storm-the-barricades brand of Republicanism. And who knows when and where this will stop — or where it will lead?” Jill Lawrence writes for Politics Daily. “It has all the elements of a runaway train, and very few Republicans are willing to step in front of it.”

ABC’s John Berman was in the district for the wacky final weekend on the trail — and was the first to reach Hoffman after Sunday’s news broke: “I just informed Doug Hoffman that GOP’s Scozzafava endorsed his opponent. He hadn’t heard. Claims he is not discouraged,” Berman Tweeted.

The campaign told Berman he was mistaken, even after making a phone call to check. More to come, including exclusive interviews with both Owens and Hoffman, on “World News” Monday night.

How the endorsement went down: Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., “called other Democratic leaders about the situation, including White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel,” the Watertown Daily Times’ reports. “A Democratic source said that Scozzafava and her husband, Ronald P. McDougall, met with U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, D-Huntington, and state Democratic Committee Chairwoman June F. O’Neill at a restaurant in Gouverneur on Saturday afternoon to discuss the endorsement.”

Politico’s Martin and Charles Mahtesian: “When some senior Democrats worried Scozzafava might be wavering about the endorsement, according to another account, the White House got Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver, one of the most powerful figures in the state, and New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to place calls to the assemblywoman on Saturday evening to coax her into delivering it. Sen. Charles Schumer, who had been in touch with White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel and Israel, also weighed in.”

Vice President Joe Biden campaigns with Owens in Watertown at 10 am ET Monday — though no word yet on whether Scozzafava will be there, too.

One person who won’t be there: “Dede is entitled to her own opinion, as is everyone, but I obviously disagree with her decision,” Matt Burns, Scozzafava’s former campaign manager, tells The Hotline.

In the other big races — can the White House steal a victory in either one? “Tuesday will give a picture of public attitudes in certain places and measure which party has energy on its side heading into a high-stakes election year. Some questions will be at least answered partially,” the AP’s Liz Sidoti writes.

“Among them: Did Obama’s campaigning in Virginia and New Jersey persuade the diverse voting coalition that lifted him to victory in 2008 to turn out for Democratic candidates in 2009? Did fickle independents stick with the Democratic Party? Did the out-of-power GOP overcome fissures within its ranks to find a winning strategy?”

The New York Times’ Adam Nagourney: “The outcome could, to a limited degree, help measure whether Mr. Obama’s success last year was a phenomenon limited to him or the early signs of a long-term Democratic resurgence. And it may offer a hint of the thinking of independent voters, the real swing group in American politics, who were so critical to Mr. Obama’s success and who polls suggested have been put off by Mr. Obama policies.”

RNC Chairman Michael Steele: “These are bellwether races — not just as a referendum on this administration, but on our party as well. . . . This administration is so out of step with the heartbeat of this country, and that’s going to be apparent on Tuesday. You’ve got a smiling chairman on the phone.”

The stakes at the White House… ABC’s Jake Tapper, on “Good Morning America” Monday: “You can tell how much the White House may be anticipating to have a bad day tomorrow by how much they’re already saying the results won’t say anything” about the president’s political standing.

In New Jersey, the president himself tried to answer some of the key questions Sunday. ABC’s Stephanie Sy: “Urging New Jersey voters to ‘vote like you did last year,’ Obama admitted, ‘here’s the tough part — here’s the time when it’s not as sexy, not as flashy, this is when governing comes in and we have to make tough choices and progress is not as quick as we want.’ ”

“New Jersey is their best chance for a win tomorrow night,” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos reported on “GMA.” “They want to avoid the sweep at all costs, because they’re afraid that will be seen as a verdict on the president’s first year, and could affect this debate over health care in the Congress.”

Q-poll numbers out Monday: “In the see-saw New Jersey Governor’s race, Republican challenger Christopher Christie has 42 percent to Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine’s 40 points, with 12 percent for independent candidate Christopher Daggett, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided. This compares to a 43-38 percent Gov. Corzine lead, with 13 percent for Daggett, in an October 28 survey.”

“The New Jersey contest is attracting enormous attention, not only because of its closeness,” David W. Chen and David M. Halbfinger write for The New York Times. “The sputtering economy here (unemployment is 9.8 percent) has helped to depress Mr. Corzine’s poll numbers and created uneasiness among Democrats nationally about a state they have carried in presidential contests since 1992. Republicans are likely to seize on a Corzine defeat as a sign that Mr. Obama’s policies are being rejected by the electorate, and argue that they will oust more endangered Democrats in 2010.”

“The White House is banking on Mr. Obama’s visit to boost Democratic turnout enough to put Mr. Corzine over the top — avoiding an embarrassing double-dose of defeat for Democrats in Tuesday’s governors contests, as Virginia looks poised to elect Republican Robert F. McDonnell just 12 months after Mr. Obama’s historic win there for president,” the Washington Times’ S.A. Miller reports.

In Virginia: “Republican Bob McDonnell appears poised to win the governorship and lead a GOP sweep Tuesday, ending nearly a decade of reverses for his party, according to The Richmond Times-Dispatch Poll,” the Times-Dispatch’s Jeff E. Schapiro writes. “McDonnell is favored by 53 percent, while Democrat R. Creigh Deeds is preferred by 41 percent — a widened lead from an early October survey for the newspaper. Six percent are undecided in the latest poll.”

In New York City, new Quinnipiac numbers: “One day before the New York City Mayoral election, incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Comptroller William Thompson 50-38 percent, with 10 percent undecided, among likely voters.”

A defense of third-party candidates, by Ross Douthat of The New York Times: “For anyone who wants to try, the time is now. This year has been a good year for independent candidates. Given the public mood these days, 2010 could be an even better one — and there will be a lot more than three offices up for grabs next fall.”

Watching with caution: “New England’s moderate Republicans, shoved out of power by two Democratic waves of anti-George W. Bush fervor, are scrambling to make a 2010 comeback, making early bids for congressional seats that GOP leaders say are critical to taking back majorities in the House and Senate,” Susan Milligan writes in The Boston Globe.

“We aren’t going to win back the majority without fighting hard in the Northeast, and we intend to do it,” said Rep. Pete Sessions, R- Texas, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Speaking of election issues … health care on the move.

“After months of plodding work by five Congressional committees and weeks of back-room bargaining by Democratic leaders, President Obama’s arms-length strategy on health care appears to be paying dividends, with the House and the Senate poised to take up legislation to insure nearly all Americans,” Robert Pear and Sheryl Gay Stolberg write in The New York Times. “Democratic leaders and senior White House officials are sounding increasingly confident that Mr. Obama will sign legislation overhauling the nation’s health care system — a goal that has eluded American presidents for decades.”

But can this promise be kept? “Senior White House Counsel Valerie Jarrett told me this morning that the President will keep to his pledge not to tax the middle class to pass his health care package. ‘He’s confident that a bill will be passed consistent with his parameters,’ ” per ABC’s George Stephanopoulos. “According to Republican Senator Charles Grassley, the Joint Tax Committee’s analysis shows taxes will go up for 46 million Americans making under $250,000 under the plan.”

“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will seek a vote as early as this week while trying to pacify fellow Democrats who say her bill isn’t strong enough and others who fret that federal dollars might be used for abortions. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is waiting for cost estimates on his proposals while trying to win enough votes just to start debate,” Bloomberg’s Kristin Jensen and Laura Litvan report.

The Wall Street Journal editorial: “The Worst Bill Ever.”

From the other side: “Acknowledging they can’t stop the Senate from bringing up a health care reform bill, Republicans have mapped out a strategy to draw out the debate, attack the measure’s core components and force difficult votes on vulnerable Democrats,” Roll Call’s David M. Drucker reports.

“By unveiling their own legislation, Republicans will be able to coalesce around a concrete plan. But they also open themselves to potential criticism of their proposals,” The Wall Street Journal’s Greg Hitt reports.

On Afghanistan, Abdullah Abdullah’s withdrawal from the run-off election doesn’t complicate the president’s decision-making (and the run-off was formally cancelled Monday morning), but the decision may slip: “The President will make a decision when he is confident he has all the facts he needs,” Valerie Jarrett told George Stephanopoulos.

The president may be delaying his decision-making — but it’s not dithering, writes Bloomberg’s Al Hunt: “For former Vice President Dick Cheney, who wants to go all out for victory, or for Democratic Senator Russ Feingold of Wisconsin, who wants to get out as soon as possible, the right decision in Afghanistan is easy. President Barack Obama, and even some Republicans, wish it were that simple. The problem is many of the contentions and conclusions, on all sides, are oversimplified, even dubious.”

Friends like these: “President Obama now faces a new complication: enabling a badly tarnished partner to regain enough legitimacy to help the United States find the way out of an eight-year-old war,” David E. Sanger writes for The New York Times.

Remember that odd body language between Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., at the White House last month? Well, Pelosi said, it’s not him — it’s Afghanistan that made her cringe. “I was more reacting to what he was saying than his arm on my shoulder,” Pelosi told ABC’s Bill Weir, on “Good Morning America” Saturday.

On cap-and-trade — “almost no hope”: “The climate-change bill that has been moving slowly through the Senate will face a stark political reality when it emerges for committee debate on Tuesday: With Democrats deeply divided on the issue, unless some Republican lawmakers risk the backlash for signing on to the legislation, there is almost no hope for passage,” Juliet Eilperin reports in The Washington Post.

Launching Monday: a new national ad campaign from the Alliance for Climate Protection’s Repower America campaign. “Repower Voices” features Brent Scowcroft, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Pepsi CEO Indra Nooyi, Ted Turner and Sheryl Crow, on national cable and broadcast TV.

Also launching from the alliance: The Repower Wall.

Swamp tales: “The disclosure in recent days of a sensitive document from the House ethics committee offers the contradictory portrait of a panel actively pursuing a range of probes even as Democrats under scrutiny remain in positions of power,” Paul Kane writes for The Washington Post. “The 22-page document revealed that the ethics committee, as of late July, was looking into the activities of at least 19 lawmakers, including reviews of home mortgages and interviews about corporate-backed trips for members of Congress to Caribbean resorts. Combined with the inquiries being conducted by a new ethics office, the document showed a far more robust set of investigations than previously revealed.”

Filling out the Palin bookshelf — all before the former governor goes rogue for real Nov. 17: “The first book hits stores Tuesday …. ‘Sarah from Alaska: The Sudden Rise and Brutal Education of a New Conservative Superstar,’ was written by Scott Conroy and Shushannah Walshe, television reporters who followed Palin on the presidential campaign trail last fall,” McClatchy’s Erika Bolstad writes.

“Next up, on Nov. 12, a book with a more right-wing bent: ‘The Persecution of Sarah Palin: How the Elite Media Tried to Bring Down a Rising Star,’ by Matthew Continetti of the conservative Weekly Standard magazine. Then, on the same day Palin’s own book publishes, comes a book of left-leaning essays, ‘Going Rouge: An American Nightmare.’ The book, with its parody title and strikingly similar cover art, was put together by two senior editors at The Nation magazine and will be available only on the Web site of its publisher, OR Books.”

The Kicker:

“The Phillies will win the series!” — Dr. Jill Biden, to ABC’s Karen Travers, before Games Three and Four of the World Series.

“I think he’s got an out-of-this-world ego. He’s very narcissistic. And he’s able to focus all attention on him all the time.” — Rush Limbaugh, on “Fox News Sunday.”

For up-to-the-minute political updates check out The Note’s blog . . . all day every day:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/

Independents’ Day: GOP has high expectations, but indie energy may rule

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

In the push-pull between Democrats and Republicans, it’s a day for none of the above.

On an Election Day that will provide limited data — and that the GOP looks likely to celebrate, while Democrats tell us to look elsewhere — there’s a surfeit of evidence that independents are the powerbrokers of American politics.

A third-party candidate may win a congressional seat in upstate New York. Another might swing a governor’s race in New Jersey.

Virginia appears poised to elect a Republican governor who’s reached for the same middle President Obama counted on last year.

And in New York City, a Democrat-turned-Republican-turned-independent stands to win an unprecedented third term, mostly by being a good mayor (and who could spend more money than everyone else combined bragging about his lack of ideology).

2009’s races could bring a clean GOP sweep. But it’s being fueled by indie energy that’s as unaligned as it is unwieldy and unfocused.

Doug Hoffman’s base of support in New York’s 23rd congressional district doesn’t look much like Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s, or the one-time Obama voters who appear ready to bail on Democrats in Virginia.

The themes that unite the disparate races — frustration and anger at government, angst over the economy’s drift — aren’t the kinds of things that either party should celebrate.

Even a Republican sweep — a very real possibility that could leave a very real mark on the president’s agenda — won’t mean party salvation:

“Even if political winds start blowing harder behind them and even if they can capitalize on Democratic missteps, Republicans still will have a long way to go over the next year because of their party’s own fundamental problems — divisions over the path forward, the lack of a national leader and a shrinking base in a changing nation,” the AP’s Liz Sidoti writes. “In fact, 2009 seems to have underscored what may be the biggest impediment for Republicans — the war within their base.”

Tuesday’s contests will set some storylines in motion: “A Republican sweep in Tuesday’s key contests would at minimum show that Democrats face much tougher political terrain than they did a year ago,” The Wall Street Journal’s Naftali Bendavid and Anton Troianovski report. “GOP victories would also help the party’s fundraising and candidate recruitment for 2010, providing backing for arguments that Republicans have the momentum, and that voters are turning against the Obama agenda.”

Even more immediate: “President Obama and his team are hoping to avoid going 0 for 3 on Election Day,” ABC’s David Chalian writes. “The most pressing immediate political impact of a shutout may be some tougher-to-woo moderate Democratic votes on health care reform precisely at the same time the White House is looking to get this major legislative priority signed into law and off the president’s desk.”

“Strong finishes by third-party candidates in New Jersey and a special congressional election in Upstate New York could signal voter discontent with both major parties and the nation’s direction,” USA Today’s Susan Page writes. “In a show of concern, the White House dispatched Obama on Sunday to campaign in New Jersey and Vice President Biden on Monday to Upstate New York, where the congressional race has become a battle over the GOP’s ideology.”

And, of course, there’s Sarah Palin, surely coming again to a Facebook page near you. (Can any other major politician as credibly celebrate a Hoffman victory, as part of a Republican sweep?)

The logistics for Election Day 2009:

Virginia: polls open 6 am ET- 7 pm ET
New Jersey: 6 am ET-8 pm ET
NY-23: 6 am ET-9 pm ET
New York City: 6 am ET-9 pm ET

The three big contests mark the first high-profile elections of the Obama era: “Election Day 2009 brings critical lessons about the state of the electorate, as well as the resiliency of the coalition that vaulted President Obama to the White House.”

ABC’s Gary Langer rounds up the numbers: “Is tomorrow’s voting a referendum on Barack Obama? Pre-election data suggest that notion’s a tough sell.”

A timely look at where the energy has gone: “One year after winning the election, Mr. Obama has seen his pledge to transcend partisanship in Washington give way to the hardened realities of office. A campaign for the history books, filled with a sky-high sense of possibility for Mr. Obama not just among legions of loyal Democrats but also among converts from outside the party, has descended to an unfamiliar plateau for a president whose political rise was as rapid as it was charmed,” Jeff Zeleny writes from Iowa, in The New York Times.

“Interviews with voters across Iowa offer a window into how the president’s standing has leveled off, especially among the independents and Republicans who contributed not just to his margin of victory in the caucuses here but also to the optimism among his supporters that his election would be a break from standard-issue politics.”

Arianna Huffington reads David Plouffe’s new book as pitting Candidate Obama against President Obama: “How did the candidate who got into the race because he’d decided that ‘the core leadership had turned rotten’ and that ‘the people were getting hosed’ become the president who has decided that the American people can only have as much change as Olympia Snowe will allow?”

Al Gore won’t play pundit — at least not until after Election Day: “I’m one who strongly believes that the voters ought to decide this, and they’re voting today — God bless ‘em,” he told ABC’s Diane Sawyer, on “Good Morning America” Tuesday.

Any chance of a return to politics? “I doubt that very seriously. I’m a recovering politician… I’m on about step nine now.”

And should President Obama go to Copenhagen: “I hope that he does go. …
He hasn’t told me that he’ll go, but I feel certain that he will.”

As for Tuesday’s races, how you bloviate depends on what you believe: “As a predictor of future elections, the Virginia and New Jersey races are unreliable. But as fillers of airtime and column inches, they are immensely valuable,” The Washington Post’s Dana Milbank writes. “This year, Democrats are determined to assert that the elections are not a referendum; this is because they expect to lose. Republicans, who expect to win, are pro-referendum.”

Joe Scarborough’s predicts a GOP sweep, at Huffington Post: “Virginia– Bob McDonnell by 10+… New Jersey– Chris Christie by 1…New York 23– Doug Hoffman by 7.”

The stakes, as outlined by Hoffman: “All along I’ve been fighting for the soul of the Republican Party, for the values and ideals that it stands for,” he tells ABC’s John Berman and Justin Anderson.

The tent, should only be so big: “Isn’t that true in life in general? There is always boundaries.”

Why NY-23 is going to be the lead story, even if we’ll forget about the winner as soon as he’s sworn in:

“The triumph of conservative forces over the Republican Party establishment in upstate New York has emboldened like-minded activists around the country, and it could drive the GOP sharply to the right as it lines up candidates for the 2010 midterm congressional elections,” the Los Angeles Times’ Janet Hook writes. “The rebellion that drove a moderate Republican off the ballot in a special House election today is sending a clear message to the party leadership and its candidates: Ignore the conservative grass roots at your peril.”

“If Hoffman wins this, it will be like dropping a bomb into the center of the Republican caucus,” said David Keene, head of the American Conservative Union

The search is already over for the next big battle: “We like Marco Rubio a lot. We think that Charlie Crist represents some of the same things that Dede Scozzafava represents,” Club for Growth president Chris Chocola said on ABCNews.com’s “Top Line” Monday.

“In what could be a nightmare scenario for Republican Party officials, conservative activists are gearing up to challenge leading GOP candidates in more than a dozen key House and Senate races in 2010,” Politico’s Charles Mahtesian and Alex Isenstadt report.

Most such battles will get worked out in primaries: “While it is true that there is a tactical split in the Republican Party, the circumstances in this contest are unusual — and unlikely to be representative of a broader pattern,” Time’s Mark Halperin writes. “Still, there will be cases next year in which right-wing forces may be emboldened to support primary challenges to more moderate candidates, potentially dividing the GOP.”

Vice President Joe Biden brings another reason to remember NY-23: “Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is ‘Drill, baby, drill,’ ” Biden said at a rally Monday. Then he leaned in to the microphone: “It’s a lot more complicated, Sarah.”

Countered Palin, via Facebook: “There’s one way to tell Vice President Biden that we’re tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation’s progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!”

(Remind us who leads the GOP again? Top story in the Watertown Daily Times: “Biden backs Owens; says Limbaugh picked Hoffman.”)

It’s a tough race to build a movement on: “With the party sitting on the smallest minorities in Congress it’s seen in years, the GOP will take good news anywhere, even if it comes with a hefty side order of crazy,” Salon’s Mike Madden writes.

In New Jersey — hard to imagine a mandate, but a win is a win: “The outcome of the neck-and-neck race between Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie hinges on how much of the vote is siphoned from the two candidates by third-party hopeful Chris Daggett. The latest survey shows Mr. Daggett could take as much as 12 percent of the vote,” the Washington Times’ Sarah Abruzzese and S.A. Miller report. “It would be enough to sink Mr. Christie, an unlikely front-runner in this solidly blue state.”

Democrats’ last-minute robocalls are pushing Daggett: “Will those calls — plus the Democrats’ field game — be convincing enough to squeak it out for Corzine and save President Obama from having to explain a GOP sweep?” ABC’s George Stephanopoulos reports. “I still have my doubts.”

Dead heat: “An estimated 2.5 million voters are expected to go to the polls at the end of a race that both parties portrayed as a referendum on the popularity of President Obama, who visited the state three times to appear with Corzine,” Cynthia Burton writes for the Philadelphia Inquirer.

“As they end their campaigns, Corzine and Christie are carrying the heavy weight of their political parties on their shoulders,” per the Newark Star-Ledger. “President Obama and national Democrats are counting on Corzine to stave off a GOP sweep in New Jersey and Virginia. State Republicans are looking to Christie to end years of Trenton exile.”

In Virginia, all but done: “By most accounts, Democrat R. Creigh Deeds faces a more difficult task than Republican Robert F. McDonnell in drawing out his party’s base to vote. In recent surveys, McDonnell has polled well ahead of Deeds, as have McDonnell’s two ticket mates, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling and state Sen. Ken Cuccinelli II of Fairfax County, the Republican candidate for attorney general,” Amy Gardner reports in The Washington Post.

What Virginia may ultimately mean: “The Republican Party stands to gain a new A-lister this week in Bob McDonnell, who ran his governor’s race here with near-perfect temperament, focus, discipline and hair,” Politics Daily’s Jill Lawrence writes. “McDonnell has the opportunity to become a national player and a national candidate.”

“For all the talk of Republican chaos and infighting in this off-year election, the GOP in Virginia seems to have found the formula for unifying its party and delivering a winning message,” Time’s Jay Newton-Small reports.

Another mayor up for reelection — one who makes Bloomberg’s third term look like the Red Sox to his Yankees: “Councilor at Large Michael F. Flaherty Jr.’s upstart campaign for change confronts Mayor Thomas M. Menino’s vaunted political machine as voters go to the polls to decide whether to give the incumbent an unprecedented fifth term in office,” The Boston Globe’s Michael Levenson and Donovan Slack report.

Don’t think what’s going on out there doesn’t impact what’s going on here: “The health care bill headed for a vote in the House this week costs $1.2 trillion or more over a decade, according to numerous Democratic officials and figures contained in an analysis by congressional budget experts, far higher than the $900 billion cited by President Barack Obama as a price tag for his reform plan,” the AP’s David Espo reports.

All this … for this? “The Congressional Budget Office says a version of the so-called public option backed by House Democrats would charge ‘somewhat higher’ premiums than the average private insurance policy offered on a government-sponsored exchange to be set up to sell coverage to small businesses and individuals,” Bloomberg’s James Rowley reports.

One less obstacle? “Sen. Joe Lieberman has reached a private understanding with Majority Leader Harry Reid that he will not block a final vote on healthcare reform, according to two sources briefed on the matter,” The Hill’s Alexander Bolton reports.

Two less obstacles? “On Monday, [Sen. Roland] Burris was less than specific following a health care speech at Stroger Hospital when asked by reporters if he would vote for a proposal allowing states to opt out of the public option if enough competition exists among private health insurers,” the Chicago Tribune’s Hal Dardick reports. “Burris said he does not favor a bill that allows states to opt out of the public option, but he hedged when asked if he would vote for it.”

Get the sense that this showdown can only be put off so long?

NPR’s Julie Rovner: “As health overhaul bills head toward the House and Senate floors this month, the divisive issue of abortion is threatening to derail them. Already in the House, one anti-abortion lawmaker, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), says he has enough votes to block the bill’s consideration unless he is allowed to offer an amendment to strengthen language in the bill banning federal abortion funding. The issue is also causing headaches for the Catholic Church, where a long-standing opposition to abortion is running headlong into the church’s equally long-standing support for a comprehensive health overhaul.”

New pressure from the left — going out from MoveOn.org later in the day: “Today, MoveOn.org Political Action released new ads, direct mail, and in-state polls in an escalation of their campaign to press conservative Senate Democrats not to join with Republicans in blocking an up-or-down vote on health care reform. In Arkansas and Louisiana, MoveOn released new radio ads calling on Senators Lincoln and Landrieu not to stand with obstructionist Republicans to block an up-or-down vote on health care.”

On Afghanistan — loving the one you’re stuck with:

ABC’s Jake Tapper reports that with no run-off to contend with, President Obama could announce a new Afghanistan strategy “any day”: “Is the White House ‘pleased’ — as President Obama said — that Karzai was re-elected? Senior administration officials say they’re pleased that the worst case scenario didn’t happen and the process didn’t collapse into a constitutional crisis. And they’re pleased the process is over and they know who they have to deal with.”

Tapper continues: “But as for their feelings about Karzai — the president spoke to Karzai [Monday] and delivered a message you will hear in the coming weeks from the administration and the international community — a new push for Karzai to reach objectives dealing with governance and anti-corruption.”

“President Hamid Karzai’s emergence as the victor by default cements the central dilemma facing President Obama as he decides whether to escalate the U.S. involvement in the war there,” The Washington Post’s Scott Wilson and Rajiv Chandrasekaran report. “Karzai’s victory leaves in place a mercurial leader who has crossed administration officials in the past and whose record raises doubts about his willingness to take the steps necessary to reform his government.”

Marking an era’s end, with James Dobson’s retirement: “The deaths of former Moral Majority chief Jerry Falwell and activist/televangelist D. James Kennedy in 2007 and of Moral Majority cofounder Paul Weyrich last year had lots of people talking about how the Christian right’s founding fathers were literally disappearing,” Dan Gilgoff writes in US News & World Report.

“But Friday’s announcement that James Dobson is leaving Focus on the Family’s daily radio show has much bigger political ramifications. Whereas Falwell and Kennedy had watched their power fade decades earlier and Weyrich was a behind-the-scenes Washington player rather than a cultural force, Dobson is still hugely influential among millions of Americans, particularly evangelicals. By leaving his radio show, Dobson is giving up his biggest platform.

The Kicker:

“It definitely may be.” — Jeri Thompson, wife of Fred, on whether Tuesday’s elections are a referendum on President Obama.

“I believe we have more to fear from the potential of that bill passing than we do from any terrorist right now in any country.” — Rep. Virginia Foxx, R-N.C., making a play for the Joe Wilson-Alan Grayson trophy.

For up-to-the-minute political updates check out The Note’s blog . . . all day every day:
http://blogs.abcnews.com/thenote/

GOP’s Scozzafava Robocalls for Democrat Bill Owens for NY-23 Race

ABC News' John Berman and Justin Anderson report:

It's the campaign turned Republican civil war, turned circus. Things just keep getting weirder in the race for New York's 23rd Congressional District. The Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava who, just this weekend dropped out of the race and endorsed the Democrat, today recorded a Robocall voicing her support for the Democrat Bill Owens.

Listen to the robocall HERE. The text is below:

“Hi, this is Dede Scozzafava calling on behalf of Bill Owens. And I wanted to let you know that I am supporting Bill for Congress.

“Since beginning my campaign I have said that this election is not about me, it's about the people of this district. It's not in the cards for me to be your representative but I strongly believe Bill Owens is the only candidate who can build upon John McHugh's lasting legacy in Congress.

“In Bill Owens I see a sense of duty and integrity. He will be an independent voice, devoted to doing what is right for New York. To address the tough challenges ahead we must rise above partisanship and politics, and work together.

“Please join me in voting for Bill Owens on Tuesday.”

This is coming from the mouth of a candidate whom the Republican Party spent more than a million dollars supporting.

Some on the right are most displeased with Scozzafava's actions. On his radio show today, Rush Limbaugh said, “Dee Dee Scazafava is illustrating precisely what moderate republicans will do . (6) and who moderate republicans are. (9)” Using the term RINO, or Republican in Name Only, Limbuagh said, ” Scasafava screwed every RINO in the .., we can say she' guilty of wide spread bestiality, she had screwed every RINO in the country. Everyone can just see how phony and dangerous they are.”

The Republican National Committee has now come out in support of Conservative Party candidate Douglas Hoffman. In an interview with ABC News, Hoffman said, “all along I've been fighting for the soul of the republican party, for the values and ideals that it stands for.”

When asked if there is room in the Republican party for opposing views, he said, “For moderate views, yes, but not ultra liberal views.” The tent, should only be so big, he said, “isn't that true in life in general? There is always boundaries.”

Biden v. Palin — The Re-Match

ABC News’ Rick Klein reports:

Campaigning in an upstate New York congressional district, Vice President Joe Biden today attacked his one-time opponent, Sarah Palin, who has led a succession of big-name Republicans in backing the candidacy of the Conservative Party nominee.

“Sarah Palin thinks the answer to energy is ‘Drill, baby, drill,' ” Biden said at a rally this afternoon. Then he leaned in to the microphone: “It's a lot more complicated, Sarah.”

Biden called on Democrats to “join us in teaching a lesson” to a Republican Party he said is promoting “absolutism” and “cannot tolerate any dissent.”

On Saturday, Republican candidate Dede Scozzafava dropped out of the race in New York's 23rd congressional district, as she saw her support crater in part because Republicans like Palin questioned her conservative credentials. Scozzafava on Sunday endorsed Democrat Bill Owens for the seat.

UPDATE: Palin responded to the vice president's comments via — of course — her Facebook page, blasting the Obama administration's energy policies.

“Apparently the Obama-Biden administration only approves of offshore drilling in Brazil, where it will provide security and jobs for Brazilians. This election is about American security and American jobs,” Palin writes.

And she closes with a new twist on a famous slogan: “There's one way to tell Vice President Biden that we're tired of folks in Washington distorting our message and hampering our nation's progress: Hoffman, Baby, Hoffman!”